The Ministry of Earth
Sciences (MoES) has commissioned a very high resolution (12 km) global
deterministic weather prediction model for generating operational
weather forecasts. The model has been on trial since September 2016. It
has shown significant improvements in skill of daily weather forecasts.
This model has been made operational from January 16, 2017.
The present model replaces the earlier version which had a horizontal
resolution of 25 km. It was very helpful, especially in predicting the
track and the intensity of the recent Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Vardah
and the cold wave over the northern parts of India.
MoES’s operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) will also be
upgraded to 12 km. For this the High Performance Computing (HPC) system
resources available with MoES is to be augmented to 10 Peta Flops from
the current 1.2 Peta Flops. The operational EPS currently has a
horizontal resolution of about 25 km.
The EPS is adopted to overcome the problem of uncertainties in the
forecasts. It involves the generation of multiple forecasts using
slightly varying initial conditions. The EPS also help generate
probabilistic forecasts and quantify the uncertainties.
The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) provides Weather, Climate and
Hydrological Services to various users round the year and 24/7. Both
operational and research aspects for these services are implemented
through its constituent units India Meteorological Department (IMD),
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Indian
Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and Indian National Centre for
Ocean Information System (INCOIS).
In general, during the last five years, the skill of weather and climate
forecasts in India has improved. The improvement is noted especially in
general public weather forecasts, monsoon forecasts, heavy rainfall
warnings and tropical cyclone warnings and alerts. The successes in
predicting the Tropical Cyclones Phailin/Hudhud, heavy rainfall event in
Chennai during December 2015, deficient rainfall during monsoon season
of 2015 are the best examples for the improvement in prediction
capability during the recent years.
Focused research and development activities have been carried out at
IITM, NCMRWF and IMD on weather prediction model development and data
assimilation methods. Data from the International and Indian satellites
are being assimilated in the weather prediction models.
The communication of forecasts to the stake holders on time and in
proper language is very important in the effective use of weather and
climate forecasts and minimizing the loss and damages due to severe
weather. IMD has established an effective mechanism for dissemination of
weather and climate forecasts to different stake holders using different